Tufail@tufail

Suivre

The part Based16z keeps coming back to isn't the 3x. It's that he was glued to the tick chart the whole time, and that's how he ended up taking profit on a majority position after roughly a 40% move instead of riding the thing out. His own read: sizing smaller would have been better. Not because the trade was wrong on paper, but because the size changed how he managed it emotionally. The setup itself came together instantly, per Based16z. He saw the Sydney Sweeney campaign land, then saw Wagie Capital calling it huge for American Eagle, and in his head it clicked that Sydney Sweeney was the biggest person on earth and this would go the most viral of all time. Add an expert network read that the stock was already very cheap, and he ripped 80% of his book into spot American Eagle. Drawdown risk felt limited to him at the time, since American Eagle is a decent consumer stock unlikely to go to zero tomorrow, and the upside looked great. He was moving the name around because of the position size. Then the stock went 3x and he didn't realize as much equity from the bet as he should have, because he oversized it. Going forward he's tried to size down, and the reason isn't the money. It's that sizing affects how he manages a trade emotionally. 🥲📉

11h

Tufail@tufail

Suivre

The part Based16z keeps coming back to isn't the 3x. It's that he was glued to the tick chart the whole time, and that's how he ended up taking profit on a majority position after roughly a 40% move instead of riding the thing out. His own read: sizing smaller would have been better. Not because the trade was wrong on paper, but because the size changed how he managed it emotionally. The setup itself came together instantly, per Based16z. He saw the Sydney Sweeney campaign land, then saw Wagie Capital calling it huge for American Eagle, and in his head it clicked that Sydney Sweeney was the biggest person on earth and this would go the most viral of all time. Add an expert network read that the stock was already very cheap, and he ripped 80% of his book into spot American Eagle. Drawdown risk felt limited to him at the time, since American Eagle is a decent consumer stock unlikely to go to zero tomorrow, and the upside looked great. He was moving the name around because of the position size. Then the stock went 3x and he didn't realize as much equity from the bet as he should have, because he oversized it. Going forward he's tried to size down, and the reason isn't the money. It's that sizing affects how he manages a trade emotionally. 🥲📉

11h