@jolyonThe question Brandon put to Will Chamberlain and Michael Tracey is the one that may end up settling who runs Congress: do voters weigh Trump by what he got done, or by the pledges they feel he abandoned? With the midterms coming, that gap is the whole ballgame, and the Iran conflict is the pressure sitting on top of it, a political liability for Republicans that has even Trump's backers uneasy. Chamberlain made the affirmative case on immigration, crime and the economy, contending the party has delivered more than polling indicates. Tracey pushed back. Part of Trump's 2024 victory, in his telling, rested on a promise to steer America clear of new wars, and instead people are facing steeper energy costs while Washington is entangled with Iran. Chamberlain did grant that Republicans lowballed how hard the Iran conflict would get. Israel drew the sharpest split. Chamberlain's view is that walking away from a longstanding ally would cost America credibility. Tracey's is that unconditional support for Israel is turning into a real electoral drag. Where they landed together was Epstein: Republicans, both said, largely brought that controversy on themselves by vowing things they couldn't follow through on. #DonaldTrump

@jolyonThe question Brandon put to Will Chamberlain and Michael Tracey is the one that may end up settling who runs Congress: do voters weigh Trump by what he got done, or by the pledges they feel he abandoned? With the midterms coming, that gap is the whole ballgame, and the Iran conflict is the pressure sitting on top of it, a political liability for Republicans that has even Trump's backers uneasy. Chamberlain made the affirmative case on immigration, crime and the economy, contending the party has delivered more than polling indicates. Tracey pushed back. Part of Trump's 2024 victory, in his telling, rested on a promise to steer America clear of new wars, and instead people are facing steeper energy costs while Washington is entangled with Iran. Chamberlain did grant that Republicans lowballed how hard the Iran conflict would get. Israel drew the sharpest split. Chamberlain's view is that walking away from a longstanding ally would cost America credibility. Tracey's is that unconditional support for Israel is turning into a real electoral drag. Where they landed together was Epstein: Republicans, both said, largely brought that controversy on themselves by vowing things they couldn't follow through on. #DonaldTrump